Fall Lecture and Receptions with
Francis X. Diebold
Paul F. Miller, Jr. and E. Warren Shafer Miller Professor of Social Sciences
Professor of Economics, Finance, and Statistics and Data Science

Arctic temperatures are rising significantly faster than the global average, a trend closely linked to a severe, multi-decade decline in Arctic sea ice. This dramatic loss not only serves as a clear indicator of ongoing climate change but also influences the rate at which future climate change will advance. As a result, Arctic sea-ice loss has been the subject of extensive research, often utilizing complex computer models to predict future conditions. Unfortunately, these models have consistently underestimated sea-ice loss in recent decades, and their long-term forecasts can vary considerably. In this talk, I will (1) sketch this background in some detail; (2) introduce a straightforward and reliable statistical forecasting method that suggests ice-free Arctic summers are likely by 2040—much sooner than most computer models predict; and (3) explore why computer models have struggled with sea-ice forecasting and offer constructive suggestions for improving their accuracy.

Zoom link will be sent to registered attendees.